Source- ESIG-
2023 Long Term Forecasting Workshop
The era of stagnant load
growth is over. With the upcoming electrification of heat and transport driven
by the need for reducing carbon emissions, our electricity consumption is
forecasted to double. This forecasted electricity growth transforms the existing
planning process- the electric system will change from summer peaking to winter
peaking, it changes periods of resource adequacy, planning on transmission and distribution
system, availability of generation resources, and everything in between. The
task of identifying that the electric load will be is the task of Long-Term Forecasting
process.
This Long-Term Load
Forecasting is the foundational process for a utility’s operations. These long-term
forecasting often look ahead 10 years in ahead in the future and anticipate
what the load will be in the future. Based on this plan, the electric utility
then plans for development of its infrastructure to be able to meet the electric
demand. In an energy market, the load term forecasting provides the market
signal the price for Forward Capacity Market, development of Transmission
Planning, process for Generation Interconnection, and other processes.
Long term forecasting consists
of econometric models based on historical load growth and weather, which is then
adjusted based on exogenous forecasts of various factors including energy
efficiency, state policy, building electrification, transportation
electrification, and other trends. Proper load forecasting needs a strong understanding
of the emerging trends, and how these impact the electric load in the future.
Load forecast provides future
energy load, but also future demand. The demand modeling provides what the
future electric peak load will look like. Using historical weather history (30+
years), a weekly weather distribution is developed that provides what is the
total variance of the weather that will be in each week. For each week a
Weighted Temperature Humidity Index (WTHI) is used to forecast the demand for
each week.
The forecasts provide 50/50
and 90/10 load. The 50/50 load forecast is the load that has a 50% probability
of the forecast will exceed. 90/10 load forecast is that there is a 10 percent
probability that the forecast will exceed. In other words, the 50/50 load level
is a peak demand that is expected every two years, 90/10 is the extreme weather
level that is expected once every ten years. The Transmission Planners use the
90/10 peak demand data to plan the load to plan for meeting system reliability
to meet all the expected peak. For other resource adequacy measure planners can
use the 50/50 peak.
With the energy transition,
there is a wide variability in the future load in terms of forecasted solar PV
installs, energy storage system, installed wind energy, electric vehicles, and electrification
of buildings. These provide a challenge in terms of being able to forecast
exactly what the future load will look like. With electrification of the
building, the system transitions into a winter peaking system from summer
peaking system. The high adoption of solar PV transitions the daily load curve
into a duck curve with a sharp peak during in the evenings. Electric Vehicles double
the use of electric use.
Our society's successful
energy transition relies on accurate load forecasting, providing critical
insights into the future grid. This enables the integration of clean energy,
resource balancing, adequate energy reserves, and robust transmission infrastructure.
As the energy landscape evolves, embracing advanced technologies,
distribution-level forecasting, enhanced weather forecasting, and scenario
planning will be essential for accurate and reliable load forecasting.
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